Now, taking your profit at the top takes a lot more work than mere luck.
Read on to understand how you can sell your coins at the top without being lucky.
Understanding the Market
Selling your crypto at the top is about understanding the market. Three main factors drive crypto cycles:
- Global Liquidity Cycle (since 2008): It is the availability of money in the international financial system. When liquidity abounds, individuals have more capital to invest in cryptocurrencies.
- Bitcoin Halving (since 2012): Bitcoin undergoes a halving event every four years. It reduces the reward for mining new blocks by 50%. In previous instances, this has led to price increases due to the decreased influx of the latest bitcoins into the market.
- US Elections/Regulation: Politics and regulations in the US can shake up the crypto market. These events have an impact on investor sentiment and market behavior. You can use these factors to predict market moves, as they create a clear 4-year pattern.
Noticing the Cycles Crypto goes through regular seasons in this 4-year pattern:
- Winter = bear markets (e.g., 2022): prices fall, and investors lose faith in investing.
- Summer = Bull markets (e.g., 2023): Prices climb, and people feel hopeful about investing
- Spring & fall = in-between times: markets either recover from the down phase or prepare for the up phase.
Source: X
Now, let’s see more about these insights:
- Figuring Out the Season: Let’s say late 2022 kicked off a bull market. We’re in the “summer” stage now. Prices have shot up, but room for growth remains. Summer cools down after a strong spring, as we saw in 2021, and we expect again in 2024. Knowing this stage helps you plan when to exit.
- Spotting the ‘Best’ Season: The peak of the cycle, or “fall,” occurs when enthusiasm for the market reaches its zenith. It presents an ideal opportunity to sell your crypto and repurchase it when winter arrives. The market has climbed to its highest point in the fall, with investor sentiment turning bullish and prices hitting their peak.
- Catching the ‘Euphoria Moment’: It’s tough to nail down the market peak because there’s a lot of noise and greed.
Here are some ways to fight greed and spot the top:
- Keep an eye on Global Liquidity: Watch the year-on-year (YoY) % shift in global liquidity. An upward trend shows the market still has steam. A downward trend might signal it’s time to sell before things go south. Liquidity shows how much money is floating around in the market. When there’s plenty of cash, it props up asset prices. When money starts to dry up, it could mean trouble on the horizon.
- Surf the Liquidity Flow
- Think of liquidity as a flow.
- Stay in the market when the year-over-year percentage shift in liquidity goes up.
- Consider getting out when it starts to drop.
This method helps you sync with the market direction.
- Spot the ‘Fun Time’: The ‘fun time’ happens when the market is easy to join and prices are climbing. The year-over-year percentage change in liquidity often hits about 4.5% during this time. Currently, we are at 1.5%. Stay flexible, as history sometimes repeats itself. The ‘fun zone’ is a period where making profits is straightforward and investor confidence is high.
- Liquidity as a Leading Indicator: Shifts in liquidity can predict price movements by 6–12 months. This means liquidity trends can give you an early hint about where the market’s heading. For example, if liquidity starts to dry up, prices might follow suit after a while. This delay gives you time to make intelligent choices.
- Keeping an Eye on Stablecoin Supply: To track crypto-specific liquidity, watch the stablecoin supply. If the stablecoin supply is accelerating, it can support a sustained rally. Think of global liquidity as the big picture and stablecoin liquidity as the local map. Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC have a crucial function in the crypto world. They offer a steady way to trade and boost liquidity.
Source: X
Other Signs to Check
- Market Mood: Tools like the Fear and Greed Index can help check the market sentiment. Too much greed often comes before market peaks, while too much fear can point to market lows.
- On-Chain Metrics: Things like the number of active addresses, how much is being traded, and money going in and out of exchanges can show us what’s happening in the market and how investors are acting.
- Technical Analysis: It would be best if you had an understanding of chart patterns, moving averages, and other technical aspects. Knowing these will help you spot potential highs and lows. For instance, you can use the information provided by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to know if a cryptocurrency is oversold or overbought.
Conclusion
To be able to sell your crypto when the price is high, you need to watch the cycles and the number of people who are willing to sell their crypto. By doing this, you will be able to make proper decisions rather than waiting and hoping that events take a particular course that you desire. Here is the second part.
Disclaimer
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to the accepted risk tolerance levels of the writer/reviewers and their risk tolerance may be different than yours. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur due to any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments so please do your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.