Some fancy predictions. Others – even more of them. In less than two weeks, Michael Novogratz, CEO of cryptocurrency focused merchant bank Galaxy Digital LP, has changed his mind regarding BTC price. Now, he affirms that the coin will be trading at $9,000 at best by end-year.
And not $10,000 — a price which he claimed was impossible for BTC not to hit. He suddenly felt a change of heart when speaking at the Finance Disrupted event in Manhattan. Why? As a matter of fact, there is no unequivocal answer to that. During the event, he simply stated that the markets face pressure because its participants sell crypto in order “to fund the burn rate of the industry.” Then, he voiced his new prediction.
For an experienced trader reading a BTC/ETH price speculation is nothing out of the ordinary. After all, all traders/predictors fall into three major categories: The extreme, like John McAfee who has been flying under the radar after the unflattering Bitfi incident; the semi-extreme, like Brian Kelly, Founder & CEO of BKCM LLC, who emphasized that “this Bitcoin rally is real.” And mildly-extreme like Michael Novogratz. Some have fairly pointed out that “No one knows where Novogratz gets his predictions from or why he decided to change his thoughts on where the price would go in such a short period.”
Indeed, the rational origins of all crypto predictions are vague and elusive. Undoubtedly, all of the abovementioned figures partially produce their ideas for publicity and wordbuzz. However, it seems that there is also a lack of desire to dive deeper into the crypto subject.
Kelly, for example, when explaining his bullish sentiments stated that “the speculation of an ETF decision will continue to push the market up.” Reason? No one knows, as Kelly never explained why this speculation attracts investors and not alienates – which is equally possible.
Similarly, in mid-September Novogratz tweeted that the market has reached its bottom when BTC was trading at around $6,150-6,200. Despite the serious nature of the claim, he did not explain in detail where his assumptions stem from beginning the tweet with “I think.”
There is nothing wrong with thinking if you also happen to substantiate your thoughts, not just show a graph taken out of context. This point has been well emphasized by a macroeconomist, Peter Tchir, who does not hide the fact that he finds the constant predictions by all crypto enthusiasts to be baseless and such which are dictated by vested interests. Read: By desire to make money in the growing industry.
And again, there is nothing wrong with wanting to prosper. Yet on the way to prosperity it is also advisable to apply some logical reasoning. So going back to Novogratz’s newly-emerged BTC price of $9,000. Given its current price of $6,579, that means that the coin will see an increase of around 36%. What are the real chances of that? And why $9,000 and not $15,000 or $25,000? And why for example Novogratz’s prediction of hitting the $40,000 mark ‘easily’ by the end 2018 has been abandoned by its own author?
These questions are left unanswered and serve as yet another reminder of how important it is to do your own meticulous research and not overly focus on one type of indicator which suits you most. The market, crypto or traditional, is not susceptible to the influence of one or two factors. It is an intricate structure and it is crucial to see the whole picture, not just one bit of it.
At the end of the day, the whole crypto industry will benefit from diving deeper into the subject and factors affecting it, ultimately abandoning the let-me-randomly-predict approach. And when that happens, there is a good chance that both the traders’ behavior and the whole market will become less volatile.