Top 10 Crypto Predictions for 2024 - Part 2

After the unpredictable year of 2023, predicting the future of the fast-moving and volatile crypto asset space is challenging. However, despite the inherent challenges, making predictions holds value. Even if the crystal ball proves to be less than precise, it is beneficial for analyzing market trends and major players.

Now, armed with their unique perspective, Bitwise has compiled a list of 10 predictions for the unfolding year of 2024. Let’s go through these predictions and see what they mean for the future of web3. This is the second part of this article.

Prediction #1: BTC To Surpass $80,000

Bitwise projects a more conservative estimate, anticipating Bitcoin to reach over $80,000, establishing a new record high. Looking ahead to 2024, a spectrum of other predictions emerges.

Bitcoin commentator Plan B anticipates an average price of at least $100,000 between 2024 and 2028. Meanwhile, BitQuant sets a target of approximately $250,000 post-2024 halving. Even bolder predictions extend into $1 million, voiced by influential figures like Cathy Wood and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

On a more cautious note, a conservative outlook is that Bitcoin will likely breach the $80,000 mark in 2024. Reports hinting at the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the US and the impending Bitcoin halving events fuel this optimism.

The Halving And Its Impact

Essentially, the upcoming halving, scheduled for April 2024, will reduce the mining reward by 50%, from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC, maintaining Bitcoin’s limited supply of 21 million tokens.

Historical patterns indicate that past halving events have catalyzed bullish trends in Bitcoin’s value, both leading up to and following the event. Consequently, a prediction of $80,000 does not seem far-fetched.

Source: Bitwise

However, amidst this optimism, investors must remain mindful of potential challenges. The influx of institutional players into the crypto space may lead to a reduced tolerance for the wide valuation swings that have characterized Bitcoin’s journey since 2016. Especially as it transitions from a retail and non-traditional investor favorite to a mainstream asset.

Prediction #2: The Approval Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Established entities such as Wisdom Tree, Invesco, Franklin Templeton, and Blackrock have all submitted proposals, contributing to the increasing likelihood of regulatory approval.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the probability of the SEC greenlighting a filing by January 10 is a robust 90%. Moreover, the prospect of witnessing consecutive launches of Bitcoin ETFs in January is plausible, with Bloomberg estimating as many as ten new offerings.

While spot Bitcoin ETFs are already accessible in other markets like Canada and Europe, it’s essential to recognize that the US constitutes approximately 60% of the total global equity market value.

Furthermore, many data analytics firms assert that the demand generated by a spot ETF approval could propel the price of Bitcoin to a range between $50,000 and $73,000. Meanwhile, some may view this estimate as overly cautious.

Parallels From Gold

Examining the trajectory of gold, Bitcoin’s analog counterpart, following the introduction of the first US-based gold commodity ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), provides valuable insights.

Source: Bloomberg

Before the existence of GLD and the similar iShares Gold Trust (IAU), investors faced limitations with options confined to physical bullion (posing challenges in terms of cost and storage) or the futures market (not suitable for every investor).

Launched in November 2004, GLD played a pivotal role in augmenting overall gold demand by mitigating the frictional costs associated with metal investment, thus expanding accessibility to a broader investor base. Since its inception, the price of gold has surged by nearly 360%.

Source: Bitwise

Unsurprisingly, Bitwise foresees the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, projecting them to collectively achieve the status of the most successful ETF launch in history. Their estimation suggests that spot Bitcoin ETFs could command 1% of the $7.2 trillion US ETF market within five years, translating to $72 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM).

Undeniably, this development, irrespective of which institution secures approval first, is poised to be a positive catalyst for the sector.

Prediction #3: Coinbase’s Revenue To Double, Surpassing Wall Street Expectations

Beyond crypto assets, Coinbase emerges as the leading TradFi contender poised to reap substantial gains from the anticipated bull market in 2024.

Coinbase’s stock has already demonstrated exceptional performance throughout the year, surpassing the broader crypto markets with a remarkable 300% gain. The business exceeded Wall Street forecasts in the three months ending September 30, contributing to an approximately 80% surge in shares since the financial update on November 2.

Moreover, legal developments in November, including guilty pleas from rival exchange Binance and its former CEO CZ on charges of money laundering and sanctions violations in the US, further fueled this rally.

Anyhow, for Coinbase to sustain its strong performance in 2024, one crucial factor is indispensable: a definite upswing in crypto asset prices.

Strong Revenue Growth Projections

Despite reporting a net loss, the company is inching closer to breakeven. The potential realization of positive profits next year is another favorable trend for Coinbase. Bitwise projects an impressive 100% growth in revenue for the platform next year, a forecast that would surpass Wall Street expectations by a factor of 10.

Source: Bitwise

Additionally, the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds would be a significant victory for Coinbase, given its role as a custodian for numerous products. This positioning could enhance Coinbase’s standing with regulators.

With 90% of its revenue generated from retail transactions and closely tied to crypto asset prices, Coinbase’s success hinges on the upward trajectory of these assets.

Prediction #4: Stablecoins To Settle More Money Than Visa Transactions

According to Bitwise, stablecoins will surpass the settlement volume of Visa payments. By Q3-2023, Visa processed over $9 trillion in payments, while stablecoin trading volume exceeded $5 trillion.

Source: Bitwise

The growth of stablecoins has been remarkable, evolving from a near-zero market cap to an impressive $137 billion within the past four years. Given this growth trajectory, many anticipate that stablecoins in 2024 will experience even higher trading volumes and utility.

Moreover, between the leading issuers of USD-pegged stablecoins, Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT), a combined circulation of $115 billion accentuates their dominance in the market. Demonstrating a robust product-market fit among token issuers, some anticipate that many teams will strive to replicate the success of these stablecoins in 2024.

Prediction #5: J.P. Morgan To Tokenize A Fund And Launch It On-Chain

The momentum from 2023, marked by headlines of multinational financial institutions launching tokenization products, signifies a burgeoning institutional interest in web3. Some anticipate this trend to persist in 2024, with institutional money managers feeling an urgency to explore tokenization, spurred by a desire to keep pace with early movers.

While tokenization is considered one of crypto’s groundbreaking applications, fully operational projects remain scarce. However, an initiative led by financial giants Apollo Global Management and JPMorgan, under the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Project Guardian, has heightened expectations for tokenization in 2024.

Simultaneously, there is a concerted effort among Wall Street firms to intensify their endeavors in tokenizing assets on the blockchain. State Street Global Advisors expressed interest in tokenizing ETFs, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink highlighted the operational potential of underlying techs in the digital assets space.

Nonetheless, analysts at Citigroup Inc. estimate that by 2030, there could be as much as $5 trillion in tokenized private-sector securities and funds, spanning corporate debt, financing collateral, and alternative assets like real estate, private equity, and venture capital.

Source: Bitwise

Bitwise predicts that JPMorgan will tokenize and launch a fund on-chain as Wall Street prepares to tokenize real-world assets in 2024. Tokenizing a fund would enable them to capitalize on the efficiencies offered by on-chain assets, entering a market experiencing explosive growth.

Conclusion

Meanwhile, experts predict the convergence of regulatory advancements and a diminishing Bitcoin supply will propel Bitcoin to all-time highs by mid-2024 or possibly even sooner.

With 2023 marking a bustling year for the crypto space, 2024 appears poised for even more action. Investors should be alert and prepared for the unfolding developments. You can read the first part.

Disclaimer
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to the accepted levels of risk tolerance of the writer/reviewers and their risk tolerance may be different than yours. We are not responsible for any losses that you may incur as a result of any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments so please do your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.

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