Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, but the BitMEX co-founder says Ethereum currently offers the best risk-reward among major crypto assets.
ETH$2,386.40-1.18%BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects, arguing that BTC could reach $1 million by 2030. But despite that aggressive Bitcoin forecast, Hayes says Ethereum is currently his top crypto pick for new capital.
Speaking on the latest episode of Trade Secrets, Hayes pointed to several potential catalysts for Bitcoin, including a possible unwind of the AI boom, large scale monetary expansion and potential U.S. yield curve control.
He believes Bitcoin may have already found its cycle bottom near $58,000 and expects the asset to move higher from here rather than immediately explode to new highs.
“We have the ingredients. The time is now,” Hayes said, arguing that Bitcoin could continue grinding higher.
Hayes' $1 million Bitcoin prediction puts him firmly on the bullish side of the market.
His thesis is largely based on macroeconomic conditions rather than short-term crypto fundamentals. He expects a combination of monetary expansion and policies designed to keep government borrowing costs under control to eventually push more capital toward scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
A potential collapse in the AI investment cycle is another part of his argument. If the AI boom reverses and policymakers respond with additional liquidity, Hayes believes Bitcoin could benefit from the resulting increase in money supply.
His view is considerably more optimistic than that of 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen. Thielen recently argued that a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2030 would be mathematically difficult to achieve because BTC would need to attract trillions of dollars in additional capital over a relatively short period.
The disagreement highlights the uncertainty surrounding long-term Bitcoin forecasts. Hayes is focused on the potential impact of future monetary policy, while Thielen is emphasizing the scale of capital required to move Bitcoin from its current valuation to $1 million.
Despite his long-term Bitcoin conviction, Hayes says Ethereum offers a more attractive opportunity right now.
He called ETH his “number one pick” and argued that it offers a better risk-reward profile than Hyperliquid for fresh capital entering the crypto market.
Hayes believes Ethereum could potentially rise 3x to 5x relatively quickly, largely because he sees the asset as heavily overlooked compared with other major cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum's position as the foundation for much of decentralized finance is central to his thesis. Hayes also pointed out that ETH remains below its 2021 all-time high, unlike several other large-cap crypto assets that have already surpassed their previous cycle peaks.
The setup therefore looks different from Bitcoin's.
Rather than betting on Ethereum because it has the strongest current momentum, Hayes is betting on the possibility of a valuation catch-up. If capital rotates back into ETH, he believes the asset could outperform Bitcoin over the shorter term.
This view also fits with the recent strength seen in Ethereum. We previously covered Ethereum's price rally above $2,000 showing how quickly ETH can move when broader crypto momentum returns.
Hayes has also changed his view of Hyperliquid.
He remains positive on the project but believes the token's earlier asymmetric upside has diminished because the market now knows about HYPE and has already built significant expectations around it.
“Everybody knows that Hyperliquid is here,” Hayes said, explaining that the asset is no longer an overlooked opportunity.
That does not mean he expects HYPE to fall. Instead, his argument is about opportunity cost. If investors can choose between an asset with high expectations already priced in and another major asset that remains relatively unloved, Hayes believes Ethereum offers the better risk-reward setup.
That is particularly notable given Hyperliquid's recent growth and increasing attention from traditional financial and crypto markets..
For Hayes, however, greater recognition can reduce the potential for another explosive repricing.
Hayes also pushed back against the idea that U.S. President Donald Trump's comments are a major driver of Bitcoin's price.
Instead, he urged investors to pay closer attention to the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and other monetary authorities.
His argument is that crypto prices ultimately respond more strongly to liquidity and monetary conditions than to individual political statements.
That view also shaped his comments on the CLARITY Act. Hayes questioned whether Trump would spend significant political capital pushing crypto legislation when issues such as living costs and other economic concerns are more important to the average voter.
For Hayes, the bigger story is therefore not Washington's daily crypto headlines but the direction of U.S. monetary policy.
Hayes' comments come as the exchange he co-founded, BitMEX, prepares to shut down its operations on September 23.
Rather than viewing the closure as a failure, Hayes said he feels good about the decision because the exchange is ending operations on its own terms.
“We landed the plane on our own terms,” he said.
Hayes argued that competition in the crypto exchange industry has become increasingly difficult, particularly for companies without the scale of major platforms such as Binance and OKX.
The cost of security, technology infrastructure and data-center operations has made the exchange business increasingly challenging, in his view.
Hayes' latest comments create an interesting distinction between his Bitcoin and Ethereum outlook.
He sees Bitcoin as the asset with the potential to reach $1 million by 2030, driven largely by monetary expansion and macroeconomic forces.
But when it comes to deploying capital today, Ethereum is his preferred bet.
His reasoning is straightforward: Bitcoin already has strong institutional recognition, while Ethereum remains a major crypto asset that has yet to reclaim its 2021 peak. If investor attention rotates toward ETH, Hayes believes the resulting move could be substantially larger.
That makes his current positioning less about abandoning Bitcoin and more about choosing the asset he believes has the greater near-term upside.
For now, Hayes' message is clear: Bitcoin may be the long-term macro bet, but Ethereum is the trade he finds most attractive today.
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