CLARITY Act faces September challenge as Senate support remains uncertain

The CLARITY Act is heading toward another major test in September, but the crypto market structure bill still does not appear to have enough support to pass the U.S. Senate.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to keep the bill moving toward a procedural vote when lawmakers return from their August recess. However, Republicans do not have enough votes on their own, while disagreements over stablecoin rewards and crypto-related ethics rules continue to create obstacles.

The uncertainty could also affect Bitcoin and the wider crypto market, especially if investors begin to expect another delay or failure of the legislation.

Related: Senate delays CLARITY Act vote until September, confirms Majority Leader Thune

CLARITY Act Still Needs 60 Senate Votes

The Senate will likely need 60 votes to move the CLARITY Act forward. Republicans do not have enough seats to reach that threshold without support from Democrats.

That makes bipartisan support critical.

Some Republican senators have also raised concerns about parts of the legislation. As a result, Senate leaders must balance disagreements within their own party while also trying to attract Democratic votes.

The bill aims to create a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. Its supporters argue that clearer rules could reduce uncertainty for crypto companies, investors, and financial institutions. However, several issues remain unresolved.

Stablecoin Rewards Create Another Roadblock

One of the biggest disagreements involves stablecoin rewards.

Traditional banks have pushed back against rules that could allow crypto companies to offer rewards connected to stablecoin use. Banks argue that these products could encourage customers to move deposits away from traditional financial institutions.

Crypto companies have taken a different position.

Companies such as Coinbase have argued against tighter restrictions, saying that overly strict rules could limit innovation and make it harder for the U.S. crypto industry to compete.

The stablecoin debate could make it harder for Republicans to maintain support for the bill while also securing enough Democratic votes.

Ethics Rules Could Decide the Vote

Ethics provisions are another major issue holding up the legislation.

Democrats want stronger restrictions on elected officials who could benefit financially from the crypto industry. The issue has received additional attention because of President Donald Trump's involvement in the crypto sector.

These disagreements could become a major factor in negotiations before the Senate considers the bill in September.

Crypto industry advocates argue that lawmakers should focus on creating clear market rules rather than allowing political disagreements to delay broader regulatory reform.

CLARITY Act Faces Low Odds of Passing

The uncertainty surrounding the bill is already reflected in prediction markets.

Polymarket currently puts the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at around 16%.

Low expectations do not necessarily mean the bill will fail. Several weeks remain for lawmakers to negotiate the unresolved provisions before the Senate returns.

However, the current numbers show that investors are becoming less confident about a successful outcome.

Could a CLARITY Act Failure Hurt Bitcoin?

A failure or another major delay could create short-term uncertainty across the crypto market.

The CLARITY Act is viewed by many industry participants as an important step toward clearer U.S. crypto regulation. If the legislation passes, it could give institutions and crypto companies greater confidence to make long-term investments in the sector.

On the other hand, another setback could disappoint investors who have been expecting regulatory clarity.

That does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will immediately crash if the bill fails. Crypto prices are influenced by many factors, including ETF flows, interest rates, liquidity, economic data, and overall market sentiment.

The bigger impact could come from how investors interpret the failure. If markets see it as another sign that U.S. crypto regulation will remain uncertain, risk appetite could weaken.

September Could Be a Key Moment for Crypto Regulation

The CLARITY Act now faces a difficult path when the Senate returns from its August recess.

Republican leaders appear determined to keep the legislation moving, but they still need to resolve disagreements over stablecoin rewards, ethics rules, and other provisions while finding enough bipartisan support.

For the crypto industry, September could therefore become an important test of whether the United States can finally establish a broader regulatory framework for digital assets.

If lawmakers reach a compromise, the bill could regain momentum. If negotiations fail, the CLARITY Act could remain stuck in Congress and push meaningful crypto market structure reforms further into the future.

For now, the key question is not whether the Senate will discuss the CLARITY Act again, but whether lawmakers can find the 60 votes needed to move it forward.