Altcoins have taken a beating in 2024. You don’t need us to tell you that. You’ve seen it every time you open your wallet and see that balance going down. Worse yet, you don’t have a ton of dry powder to buy some of the great projects at a discount.
But don’t worry. We think this is just the darkness before the dawn of a new bull market. Things are setting up for alts to crush, starting soon. And today, we show you 6 reasons why you should be bullish about crypto for the rest of this year.
1) Germany Done Selling But ETFs Still Buying
This one is pretty self-explanatory. Germany has sold all the Bitcoin it intends to, according to Arkham Intelligence. An interesting aside is that the coin was confiscated not by the German National Government but by one of the State Governments. The difference in that is their laws in place for operating a state or province meant they HAD to sell their coins. They did not have a choice in the matter.
Source: X
So they have sold. Almost $3 billion worth. But billions more are coming in on the buy side. Bitcoin ETFs keep buying. Net inflows just to ETFs in July are almost $3 billion based on more than 40,000 BTC going to the ETFs so far this month. That’s why the big sale from the Germans didn’t tank the market.
2) Global Liquidity Index Rising
Liquidity is the name of the game. If people have money or more money is floating around in the system, then it needs to go where it can earn the best risk-adjusted returns. It’s a simple idea.
More money floating around and then a share of it makes its way to Bitcoin and then other crypto, too. Look at this chart. You will not be surprised to see that when liquidity is growing, crypto prices are in a bull market. There is some heavy correlation here between these 2 things.
Source: X
And liquidity is on the rise. More money in the system means growing prices. The only difference in this market is there are so many projects now. So even without all the memecoin projects the rising tide of more liquidity will not raise all the boats.
Only the best and highest potential projects will get the lift from new liquidity. You will have to be selective.
3) FTX & Mt Gox Repayments
The payments from FTX and Mt Gox to creditors are starting. In this case, the creditors are the investors in these exchanges that lost money. However, the situations are very different.
FTX is paying out $16 billion to its creditors from that fraudulent exchange. The big difference here is both the amount and that most of the investors have had their money locked for 2 or 3 years in all the suits and such.
Source: X
That is a lot less time than the MtGox people who are on almost 10 years now of waiting. On the FTX side, many are projecting a lot of this money will come into the market. That would lead to some selling but more buying. We agree. On the MtGox side, it’s $9 billion, which is still huge, but over a much longer period. We would be surprised to see more than 20-30% of this number selling.
They’ve been in since 2014. They are long-term holders anyway. Many will continue to do so. Some will sell just to get their funds back while others may have made so much in their 10-year holding that they sell so they can retire. After all, in 2014, Bitcoin prices were at or less than $1000. So they’ve made nearly 70x on their money.
Some will retire from this payout for sure. Not to mention, most of the MtGox money has been paid out already. At this time, it’s almost 70% of the total or $6 billion. Do you think the FTX and MtGox money will lead to lots of selling? Let us know in the comments below.
4) ETH ETFs
By the time this airs, the ETH ETF may have launched already. Now for reasons beyond the scope of this video, we are less certain an ETH ETF will have the same “Number Go Up” theme and result as the Bitcoin ETFs in the US should do. But there is no doubt that more investors and more money will come into crypto when there is an ETF alternative to Bitcoin.
Source: X
The common bull argument is that these ETFs will increase the professional/institutional nature and attractiveness of the industry. And that is true. Because the ETH ETFs will settle for cash. A new ETF investor will not be able to take their ETH and move it to Metamask, Trust Wallet, or Rabby. They will have to:
- Sell their ETF shares.
- Take the cash and buy ETH.
- Create a new non-custodial wallet to hold it.
So that is less bullish. Most people will not do this. But some will and anything that increases crypto adoption is a good thing.
5) US Presidential Election
The US presidential election in November looks like it’s going to play out like your favorite soap opera or telenovela. Joe Biden just dropped out of his re-election bid. He has endorsed his running mate and current Vice President Kamala Harris. But it could still be an open convention meaning the Democratic Party debates and votes on the floor of their convention for who the nominee will be. Harris leads it right now but anything can happen.
People see the Presidential election as bullish for the following reasons:
- Trump is courting crypto voters and even speaking at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville coming up
- Trump could win. And that means Gary Gensler gets kicked out of the SEC chair. He has been one of the 2 most anti-crypto people in the US Government.
- The other most anti-crypto, and the one who has been running Biden’s crypto policy is Sen. Elizabeth Warren. It looks like she will not be running this policy anymore in the next term either way. She won’t run policy if Trump wins. But she won’t if Harris wins either. The good news for crypto voters is that Kamala Harris and Warren hate each other. Bitcoin billionaires like the Winklevoss are donating money to Warren’s opponent hoping she will lose, which would be a plus for the industry in the US.
Kamala Harris, or some other Dem Party nominee, could win. Trump is a weak candidate. Nearly everyone working on crypto policy in DC believes that whoever wins will be an improvement over the Warren/Gensler regime on crypto policy in the US.
6) Interest Rate Cuts in the US
And finally, interest rate cuts in the US. This plays into our #2 reason above of global liquidity increasing. Interest rate cuts are likely later this year and into next year. This means it will be cheaper to borrow in the US. And it means more people will borrow, again creating more liquidity to invest.
Source: X
This creation of more debt-based money will continue or accelerate the devaluing of the dollar too. Both of those things are good for the industry but bad for working people. Hopefully, in this cycle, more of us can show them how Bitcoin and other quality crypto projects can get them to opt out of this cycle so they have a chance to get ahead and plan for the future.
Disclaimer
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to the accepted risk tolerance levels of the writer/reviewers and their risk tolerance may be different than yours. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur due to any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments so please do your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.
