Today, Bitcoin went a little bit over $9k and then retraced to the $8.2k range. In this article, we will be discussing what could possibly happen next.
Let’s have a look at the previous bull run. In the previous run, when BTC touched $7.9k a correction of around 47% followed. It will not necessarily happen the same way with this run, but a similar major correction will most certainly happen at some point.
Why would history repeat itself?
Depending on the market sentiment and some occurring events, the history will repeat itself, and most likely not at the same price as before; the markets just can’t go up forever.
If we look at the monthly chart, it is possible that BTC will close with a bull EMA cross, and if we look at the RSI indicator, there is enough room for it to happen. There was an EMA bull cross on the weekly chart as well in the middle of April, and since then, BTC has almost doubled its price.
Looking at the daily chart, the situation is not great. The RSI indicator tried to stay in the oversold area and is currently getting rejected by it. There is still room to go further in the oversold area, but this depends on a pattern on the 4-hour timeframe.
The pattern I was talking about is a bearish wedge which we are currently testing. If it breaks bearish, it’s possible that we may see a correction of around 30% or more.
If we would close inside the wedge on the 4-hour candle, I’d expect a target of around $9.7k, and if the run continues we may even see $11k.
A major correction should come somewhere in the range of $8450-11000 I’d say.
What price should we expect if we hit the correction now?
I would say we should expect around $6.5-$6.2k if we are hitting the major correction right now.
I am bearish for a while now, however, if we close inside the wedge, there is a good chance for higher highs.
Note: I am just expressing my own opinion in this article. This is not financial advice. Please, do your own due diligence before investing.
