Bitcoin Nears $81K While Ethereum Reclaims $2,500, But Traders Stay Cautious

Bitcoin and Ethereum are climbing again, but prediction-market traders are not yet convinced that the rally will carry either asset anywhere near its record highs this year.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 4.62% over 24 hours to $80,861, while Ethereum (ETH) gained 4.85% to $2,501. Yet despite the strong move, Polymarket traders currently give Bitcoin only a 32% chance of reaching $100,000 in 2026. Ethereum faces a similar ceiling, with just a 31% probability of reaching $3,500.

The gap between rising prices and cautious expectations is becoming the key story for the market.

Rate Expectations Give Bitcoin and Ethereum a Boost

The latest rally came as markets reassessed expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

Reports suggested the war in Iran could be nearing an end, while Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he could support keeping interest rates steady. As a result, expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell to around 50%, after previously reaching as high as 70%.

Weak U.S. labor data added to the shift. ADP reported that private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August, below expectations of around 47,000 and marking the weakest increase since January.

Institutional demand also returned. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $101.1 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust.

That follows a strong August for Bitcoin ETFs, when U.S. spot funds recorded their best monthly inflows of 2026 as Bitcoin gained about 25%.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs post best month of 2026 as BTC gains 25% in August

Traders Are Raising the Floor, Not the Ceiling

Prediction market positioning shows that traders are becoming more confident about Bitcoin holding higher levels, but they remain cautious about a full return toward record territory.

The probability of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 jumped 40 percentage points to 78%. At the same time, the odds of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 dropped 27 points to 50%.

However, higher targets barely changed.

This suggests traders are increasingly pricing in a higher trading range rather than expecting an immediate run toward Bitcoin's record.

Ethereum is showing a similar pattern.

The probability of ETH reaching $2,750 jumped 25 points to 75%, while the odds of reaching $3,000 increased to 54%. But the probability of reaching $3,500 remained at 31%, while the $4,000 target stayed at just 17%.

Downside Risk Has Not Disappeared

Despite the latest rally, traders have not abandoned bearish scenarios.

Polymarket participants still assign 72% odds to Bitcoin revisiting $75,000 and 56% odds to Ethereum falling to $2,250.

That creates an important distinction between the current rally and a potential move toward new highs. Traders appear more comfortable with BTC and ETH moving higher from recent levels, but they are not yet pricing in a sustained breakout toward their previous records.

Bitcoin's record stands at $126,080, while Ethereum's record is $4,946.

For now, the market appears to be repricing the range rather than the ceiling.

Friday's U.S. jobs report could provide the next major test for the rate-pause narrative. If economic data continues to weaken and rate-hike expectations fall further, Bitcoin and Ethereum could receive another boost. If expectations reverse, the downside probabilities currently priced into prediction markets could become more relevant.