Bitcoin's $90K upper band is its next real test

Bitcoin trades at $86,000 with on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant declaring the bull market "confirmed." The next real test sits at $90,300, the upper profit-taking band for the 1-3 month holder cohort and a level that lines up with the $88K-$90K on-chain supply cluster.

What triggered the call

CryptoQuant's weekly report cites three converging signals: technicals, valuation and on-chain data. Bitcoin has reclaimed its 365-day moving average at $80,500, a level analysts flagged as evidence the next bull market has started.

The 1-3 month cohort, those who bought in the last one to three months, sits at a realized price of $64,300, the average price at which their BTC last moved on-chain. Their upper profit-taking band sits 40% above that, at $90,300.

"As price approaches the upper band, trader profit margins stretch and selling can intensify, a natural pause point within an uptrend, not a reversal," CryptoQuant analysts wrote.

The MVRV backdrop

MVRV, market value to realized value, is the market's aggregate profit gauge. A reading above 1 means the average holder is in profit; below 1 means underwater.

MVRV has crossed above its 365-day moving average, an event that signaled the end of both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. During the 2026 bear market, MVRV did not fall below 1 at any point, a structural break from prior downtrends.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju attributes the shift to a larger market and growing institutional ownership, which he says dampens both upside and downside extremes.

The ETF bid

Demand has matched the on-chain setup. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.7 billion across the first two days of the week, per Farside Investors data reported by Cointelegraph. Monday's $999 million tally was the largest single-day total since October 2025.

What $90K actually means

The $90,300 upper band is where the 1-3 month cohort's profit-taking historically kicks in. It coincides with the $88K-$90K on-chain supply cluster, the next resistance to clear.

CryptoQuant describes the path between current spot at $86,000 and the upper band as "largely clear," with no return to bear-market conditions in view. The framing is a pause, not a reversal.

The question for the next leg, then, is not whether the bull market is confirmed. It is whether price can absorb selling at the $88K-$90K cluster and push through the $90,300 band without breaking the setup that made the call possible in the first place.