Crypto Market Report: July Outlook

The conclusion was that the market is just entering the heated phase, and there is still time for an exponential rally.

Realistically, we do not expect exponential movements for Bitcoin, as the demand pressure is saturated and increasing gradually. What is the crypto market doing this month?

July Outlook: Bitcoin Rally or Pre-Halving Dip?

It is unlikely to see massive buying pressure for Bitcoin as it pumps. Whoever is left behind will be on the sidelines until the peak FOMO period. With that said, what will be the market outlook for July? Let’s start with past trends.

Historically, July has been the best-performing month in Q3-2025. August and September are bearish mostly, and Q4-2025 is the most bullish. However, there are specific trends.

• July has been bearish for pre-halving years. This means that when 2024 was the halving year, July 2023 was bearish. When the 2020 halving happened, July 2019 was bearish. In 2016, halving happened in July itself, which caused a sell-the-news event.
• This trend implies that July 2026 is likely to be bearish, as the next halving might occur in 2027.
• July was highly bullish for the first and second year of halving. In 2021 and 2022, July produced more than 16% gains. In 2017 and 2018, July produced more than 18% gains.
• If the trend holds, July 2025 could produce another double-digit gain month for Bitcoin.

July 2025 Could Mirror 2017 with Bitcoin Targeting $112K

There is more.

• A bullish June has resulted in a bearish July. The opposite also holds: a bullish July follows a bearish June.
• There are two exceptions to this trend. 2015 and 2017 had bullish June and July.
• This happened because the first half of 2015 was largely bearish, and June was a breather for bulls.
• 2017 was a largely bullish year, and June-July went with the trend.
• There are striking similarities to how 2017 and 2015 have played out so far.
• Both 2017 and 2025 had two bearish months in Q1-2025, followed by bullish 3 months in Q2-2025. It is also interesting to note that both 2025 and 2017 were post-halving years.

So, by the trends, July is likely to be a bullish month. We can expect 9-12% moves in Bitcoin, which can push Bitcoin to $112k-$114k. Please note that this is a conservative figure. Any bullish macro moves can push Bitcoin to $119k, too. Likewise, any macro bearish news can push Bitcoin to $98k-$102k.

Conclusion

But the picture is clear. We are expecting a bullish July, a neutral August, and a bearish September, followed by an all-bullish Q4-2025. It is pointless to predict all the upcoming months, as macro plays a crucial role in the price action. However, it is safe to assume that Bitcoin might see good volatility in July.

We will plan according to our selling strategy to make use of the bullish behavior. Our two buy-the-dips are paying off, and we might buy again if we get an opportunity in the first week of July. If not, we will downsize our risky holdings in July.

Disclaimer

The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to the accepted risk tolerance levels of the writer/reviewers, and their risk tolerance may differ from yours. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur due to any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments, so please do your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.