Crypto Market Report – July Week 2

Trump signed Big Beautiful Bill into a law. Also, Elon Musk announced a new political party, the America Party.

Also, he confirmed that the party would adopt Bitcoin, as the fiat is hopeless. Are these good news for the crypto market? Let’s see it in this report.

Big Beautiful Bill: No Crypto Impact, but Market Sentiment Turns Bullish

First, let’s understand the immediate implications of the Big Beautiful Bill

• Tax Write-off — allowing taxpayers to write off up to $40,000, up from the previous $10,000 limit, starting in 2025. This provides more disposable income, which is bullish for the market. However, this higher cap applies to individuals with incomes up to $500,000. So, no real impact for the market.
• New tax deduction allowing car buyers to deduct up to $10,000 per year in car loan interest. This also provides disposable income and could be bullish for the market.

This means the Big Beautiful Bill has no immediate implications for crypto. Now, let’s switch our attention to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Dominance.

Bitcoin has recovered from the $100k lows. The price has been in an accumulation phase since the last 60 days.

Since July is likely to be a bullish month as per the July outlook report, we can expect Bitcoin to break out of this range and make a higher low and higher high. Bitcoin dominance on the other hand has reached a local top.

Dominance has been struggling to steer clear of the 66% resistance and is likely to fall back to 62.2%. This situation is highly favorable for alts. We can expect altcoins to pick up momentum once the dominance drops below 64.5%.

How do we know this? Tether has minted another $1B USDT last week. With tether minting more and more USDT, the altcoins are set to benefit. July could be a relief rally month for altcoins.

ETH is also in an accumulation zone for the last 60 days.

We can expect ETH to move to $2698 and $2921 if ETH can break out of the accumulation range.

Fear and Greed Index has shot up to 73 — Greed. Even though the sentiment is well below the Extreme Greed zone, the current situation is not healthy.

Why?

• In a local top, the bullish sentiments last 90 days on average.
• This means the market can stay bullish for 3 months without any considerable pullbacks.
• The market entered the bullish phase towards the last week of April and has stayed bullish or bullish neutral since then.
• This implies, we can see some bearish price action in August or by the end of July.
• Nevertheless, it is also important to note that the market goes peak FOMO before any significant retracements. Since April, there has not been a single instance of FOMO.
• Big entities like Metaplanet keep on adding Bitcoin at these prices. This buying pressure is keeping Bitcoin bullish price action intact. Once this consistent buying pressure fades, there could be severe selling pressure.

This means the current market situation is not healthy. There can be three situations:

First situation

• We can see big moves in July and an eventual pullback in August. September has been a bearish month for quite some time, and 2025 September is likely to follow the trend.
• We do expect a bullish Q4-2025, though. It makes sense, as bearish August and September mostly pave way for a bullish Q4-2025.

Second situation

• There are no pumps in July and the market looks for exit liquidity. This will be evident from random coin pumps, dead coins pumping more than 50% a day, etc.
• This will result in a bearish August too.

Third situation

• There are no pumps and the market continues to range.
• In such a case, we can expect more accumulation/distribution. The bull run is likely to be over for the short term. We might see a resurgence in momentum once Q4-2025 comes.

That’s it. The best thing is that we do not have to predict the market this time. By the time July ends, we will know what the outcome is likely to be, and take action accordingly.

Either way, we will reassess the market and prepare for the final local rally, and wait for Q4-2025.

Disclaimer

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