XRP is showing three bullish signals as October approaches, with strong ETF inflows, rising futures open interest and long-term holders still underwater.
XRP$1.45-8.14%XRP is showing strength across holder data, futures markets and ETF flows, even as the token gives back some of its recent gains.
XRP traded near $1.50, down about 6.3% over 24 hours, while still holding a weekly gain of more than 15%.
Three indicators are keeping the bullish case alive as October approaches. However, weak U.S. spot demand and XRP's historical October performance remain risks.
The first signal comes from long-term holders.
XRP's 365-day market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio sits around -11.75%, according to Santiment. A negative MVRV means holders who have held XRP for roughly a year are, on average, sitting on unrealized losses.
That can reduce immediate selling pressure because fewer holders have profits to lock in.
Santiment has previously noted that buying during periods of negative MVRV can create stronger long-term setups, although the metric alone does not guarantee a price recovery.
The second signal is coming from the derivatives market.
XRP futures open interest on Binance has climbed to nearly $600 million, a level last seen around January. Open interest measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost also noted that XRP's open interest has moved above its 180-day moving average of about $445 million.
Positive funding rates suggest that long positions are currently paying shorts, indicating that traders betting on higher prices are becoming more active.
The increase comes after a period of relatively muted derivatives activity. Altcoin Buzz recently reported how XRP short liquidations helped accelerate an earlier move higher, with $2.02 million in shorts wiped out in one hour.
Related: XRP short squeeze: $2.02M wiped in one hour, 851% imbalance
Higher open interest can support a rally when demand is genuine, but it also increases liquidation risk if positioning becomes too crowded.
The third signal is coming from U.S. spot XRP ETFs.
The funds have maintained a strong inflow streak, with cumulative net inflows reaching roughly $1.75 billion. SoSoValue data showed another $18.04 million of net inflows on Sept. 23.
Bitwise's XRP ETF led that session with $11.54 million, while Franklin Templeton's XRPZ added $6.50 million.
The recent flow pattern is notable because Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have experienced several weeks of outflows during the same period.
Altcoin Buzz previously covered this divergence when XRP ETFs attracted money while major Bitcoin and Ethereum funds were losing capital.
Related: Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit $282.6M as XRP Funds Extend Inflow Streak
The bullish signals are not enough to remove every warning sign.
XRP's Coinbase premium over Binance has narrowed to around 0.0055%, according to CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain. A stronger Coinbase premium would normally point to stronger U.S. spot demand.
That means ETF buying has not yet been matched by equally clear evidence of aggressive U.S. spot buying.
October is another concern.
CryptoRank data shows XRP has finished October lower in 8 of 13 years, with an average monthly return of about -5.14%. XRP also fell 11.9% last October.
That historical pattern does not determine what happens this year, but it gives traders another factor to watch.
XRP enters October with three constructive signals: long-term holders remain underwater, futures activity is rising and ETF investors continue adding exposure.
The latest ETF flows strengthen that picture, but the lack of a clear Coinbase premium and XRP's weak October history provide reasons for caution.
The key question is whether spot demand expands beyond ETFs and whether rising futures activity translates into sustained buying rather than crowded leverage.
For now, XRP has several signs of renewed demand, but October will test whether that momentum can hold.
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