We have covered the Genius Act in detail.
The act was signed three days ago, and since then, Ethena has been pumping well. $ENA pumped 55% in just three days.
ENA broke out of the $0.49 resistance with good volume and is currently retesting the zone. This is after retesting the $0.24 support zone multiple times.
The next resistance is at $0.65, and if $ENA can break out of that, it can comfortably move above $1.3. The current marketcap of $3.1 billion is decent for a large cap. The vesting is ongoing; however, the monthly unlock is just 4.1% of the current marketcap.
Interestingly, Ethena conducted a private token sale in February 2025 to Tier1 VCs like DragonFly, Pantera, and Polychain and raised $100 million. The sale price was $0.4 per $ENA. This means VCs are unlikely to sell $ENA at the current prices.
Ethena has an ongoing collaboration with Securitize (the largest RWA issuer with strong ties with BlackRock). Together, they launched Converge Onchain — a settlement layer for TradFi and Stablecoins. The platform is not active yet.
But what about the fundamentals? Ethena’s primary product is its synthetic stablecoin $USDe. It has over $6.2 billion in TVL. The stablecoin generates $230 million in fees annually and $11 million in revenue. Ever since the GENIUS Act, the TVL has been on the rise. More interestingly, in the last few days, $750 million TVL was added.
This means whales are betting on Ethena to go big. Moreover, 59% USDe is staked.
Among competitors, there are no projects as convincing and as liquid. Also, ENA has performed best and with excellent volume. In comparison, Frax performed similarly to Ethena, but the volume is just 10% of its marketcap, while Ethena had 93%.
All these point to the rise of Ethena both technically and fundamentally. So, what can be the realistic expectation for Ethena? Luna in the 2021-2022 bull run reached $40 billion marketcap before its collapse.
It is quite natural for a high-cap stock to reach $30 to $50 billion marketcap in a peak bull market. Even if we consider $20 billion as the final marketcap for Ethena, it is almost a 7x from the current price. So, should we buy Ethena? Considering the vesting schedule, Ethena is likely to have small yet consistent selling pressure for the next 3 years.
Since the private sale price is close to the current price, we can assume a 50% volatility from the current price for the short term. This means ENA can fall to $0.32 or pump to $0.65 in the short term.
$0.32 would be a great entry. The current pump is the FOMO pump of the Genius act and ENA is likely to retrace in the coming days. If we identify a favorable opportunity at a reasonable valuation and with a promising risk-reward ratio, we will consider investing in $ENA.
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies presented are the thoughts and opinions of the writer/reviewers, and their risk tolerance may differ from yours. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur due to any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments; therefore, please conduct your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.
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