Bitcoin Falls Below ETF Cost Basis After 3.7% CPI Print

Bitcoin traded near $81,000 in Asian morning hours on Thursday, about 3% lower over 24 hours, after a hotter US inflation print took it below the average price US spot ETFs paid for their coins. Readings from data providers ranged from about $80,850 to $81,000 during the morning, following a dip close to $80,000 in early Asian trading.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics put annual headline inflation at 3.7% for September, above the 3.6% economists had expected, with core prices up 2.6% against a 2.5% forecast. Both numbers feed one question for crypto: whether the Federal Reserve keeps rates higher for longer, and whether the buyers who added Bitcoin through September keep those positions.

ETF Cost Basis Turns Into a Ceiling at $81,500

Glassnode puts the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs near $81,500. Bitcoin is trading under it, which turns a level that held through earlier pullbacks into overhead supply.

Farside Investors' daily flow table shows how fast the funds turned. Net outflows hit $261.4 million on October 14, with Fidelity's FBTC at negative $152.7 million and BlackRock's IBIT at negative $110.9 million. A day earlier the funds had taken in $175.7 million, led by FBTC's $103.1 million and IBIT's $65.9 million.

The heaviest selling came earlier in the month. Farside recorded $484.9 million of net outflows on October 7 and another $244.1 million on October 8. Glassnode's summary of the run: nearly $3 billion of net inflows between September 21 and October 6, the funds' strongest stretch since November 2025, then roughly $760 million of outflows once that run broke on October 7.

Whales Built Their Position Before the Print

CryptoQuant's October 13 report put large holders' Bitcoin at 3.03 million BTC outside exchanges and mining pools, the highest since November 2025 and the fastest monthly accumulation pace since February. That report landed two days before the CPI release, so it says nothing about what those wallets did with the news.

Glassnode's read is less supportive. The firm sees little fresh demand behind the price, pointing to ETF selling and overhead supply, and notes that buyers from the past two years hold cost bases between about $88,000 and $100,000.

One offset: selling pressure from long-term holders has eased. Their realized losses are down 85% from a peak on August 12, and profitable sales now outnumber loss-making ones four to one.

$80,000 Is Support, $88,000 Is the Confirmation

Glassnode identified the $80,000 to $81,500 range as a critical support zone in its October 14 report, and points to $80,000 as the largest bid block on Binance's spot order book. CryptoQuant places Bitcoin's 365-day moving average near the same mark.

Below that, Glassnode said a break could force selling from leveraged longs clustered just under $80,000, which would bring the True Market Mean near $78,000 into view.

On the upside, $88,000 is both the cost basis of buyers from six to 12 months ago and a cluster of short liquidations. Glassnode said a daily close above $88,000, alongside renewed ETF inflows, would signal buyers soaking up that supply.

The Rest of the Tape

Liquidations across crypto approached $1 billion in the 24 hours to early Thursday, and long positions took the bulk of them. Ether, XRP and Solana each fell 3.5% to 4% over the same window.

Equities added pressure. Nasdaq futures were down 1%, extending Wednesday's 2% decline, while South Korea's KOSPI fell 8% and triggered circuit breakers, another sharp session for Korean equities.

Rate expectations whipsawed around the release. Polymarket's odds of an October Fed hike briefly neared 50% before easing to about 30%, while CME's FedWatch tool moved from roughly 22% to almost 47% and back to 26%. The Fed's next policy decision is scheduled for October 27-28.

Large holders built their 3.03 million BTC before the inflation print landed. Whether they keep it is the question $80,000 will answer.