Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin can reach $400,000 by 2030, but weakening ETF flows and neutral spot demand remain key challenges.
BTC$83,658.00-2.90%
Armstrong told CNBC that Bitcoin continues to follow roughly four-year market cycles, with periods of decline typically lasting about a year.
He believes the latest downturn has now reached that mark and that Bitcoin’s cycle bottom is likely already in.
Armstrong pointed to two potential catalysts: the CLARITY Act Senate vote on September 15 and Bitcoin’s next halving, expected in roughly 18 - 19 months.
“I think the next year or two is going to be good for Bitcoin,” Armstrong said.
The CLARITY Act is already a major market focus, with Altcoin Buzz recently covering Bessent’s push for the Senate to advance the CLARITY Act ahead of the procedural vote.
Bitcoin analyst Jesse Myers also expects the period before the next halving to become increasingly bullish.
Previous halvings produced progressively smaller returns, with Bitcoin gaining roughly 100x after the 2012 halving, 30x after 2016 and 8x after 2020. Myers argues that investors are now increasingly front running the halving itself.
Under a scenario that repeats the previous cycle’s pattern, Bitcoin could potentially reach $232,000 by the April 2028 halving and eventually approach $464,000 during 2029.
That would put Armstrong’s $400,000 target within reach.
The bullish projections face a major obstacle: current demand has not fully confirmed the recovery thesis.
Spot market 90-day cumulative volume delta remains neutral, while futures traders have driven much of the recent rebound.
Institutional demand has also weakened. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $986.9 million during the week ended September 4, but the current week has recorded approximately $166.9 million in net outflows.
If outflows continue, the reversal would end a three-week streak of positive weekly ETF flows.
Related: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Pull In $987 Million as Institutional Demand Recovers
Armstrong’s $400,000 forecast represents a long-term thesis rather than an immediate price target.
Bitcoin first needs to stabilize after its latest decline and attract stronger spot demand. If ETF inflows recover and the market begins positioning for the next halving, the bullish cycle thesis could regain momentum.
For now, however, $400,000 remains a long-term scenario while Bitcoin trades near $77,000.
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