Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin's Bear Market Ended in June

Galaxy's research team has made a call most firms tiptoe around. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, says Bitcoin's bear market ended in June and the coin is now in "the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance."

The report's title leaves no room for doubt: Why Now Is the Time to Add and Hold BTC. Its conclusion is just as plain: "we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin." Galaxy first sent it to clients of Galaxy Trading and Galaxy Asset Management on Oct. 22, 2026.

It's worth knowing who the first readers were. This is a note from a firm with a trading desk and an asset manager, written for the people who use them. What makes it more than a sales line is that it shows its working and spells out exactly what would prove it wrong.

Bitcoin Reclaims Its 50-Week Average After 44 Weeks

The core of the argument is one line on a chart. The 50-week moving average is Bitcoin's average price over roughly the past year, and traders watch it as a rough boundary between a market going down and one going up.

According to Galaxy, Bitcoin lost that average in the week ended Nov. 16, 2025, and stayed below it for 44 weeks. It closed back above in the week ended Sept. 20, 2026. The week ended Oct. 18 was the fifth straight weekly close above it.

On Thursday, Oct. 22, Bitcoin traded at $81,391, 3% below Wednesday's close of $84,176. That left it 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above its June 30, 2026, low.

Long Spells Below the Line Have Ended Well Before

Galaxy counts 13 times since 2011 that Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week average. The history it cares about is narrower: the four that ended a spell of 20 weeks or more.

In each of those four, the price never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year. A year later, it was up 1,497%, 128%, 55% and 142%.

Short spells told a different story. Galaxy says seven of the nine reclaims after shorter stretches went on to fall more than 25%. That contrast is the heart of the case: how long the price spent below the line seems to matter.

The Shallowest Bear Market on Record

Galaxy also points to how mild this downturn was. Bitcoin fell 53% from peak to low, against drops of 93%, 85%, 84% and 77% in earlier bear markets.

It was also the first bear market in which the price never fell below the network's cost basis. Galaxy measures this with MVRV, the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, which is roughly what holders paid for their coins. It bottomed at 1.10. At past lows it reached 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75.

The timing fits the old four-year rhythm, too. The three completed cycles hit their lows on days 777, 889 and 912 after a halving. This cycle's low so far came on day 802, and Oct. 22 was day 916.

Holders Are Not Rushing to Sell

The coins that carried the recovery from $58,525 have an average cost of $74,811, a level Bitcoin regained on Aug. 19. Those short-term holders sit about 9% in profit.

Yet they are not cashing out. The spent-output profit ratio, which shows whether coins are being sold at a gain, sits at 1.009. Galaxy reads that as "no profit-taking wave, which is what accumulation looks like."

Older coins are moving less as well. Coins dormant for five years or more moved at 67,000 BTC a month in 2024 and 47,000 in 2025. In 2026 the pace is 34,000, half the 2024 rate.

In futures, the froth has drained out. Asset managers' net long in CME Bitcoin futures fell from 43,300 BTC in the week of the all-time high to 18,400 BTC, down 57%. Leveraged funds' net short, the futures side of the trade that pairs spot ETFs with short futures, shrank from 71,400 to 30,600 BTC. Open interest is down 51% in dollar terms.

Galaxy also sets this against the US budget. Federal debt stood at $40.44 trillion on Oct. 20, up from $23.2 trillion at the start of 2020. Fiscal 2026 closed with a $1.99 trillion deficit, 6.2% of GDP, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% on Oct. 5.

Where Galaxy Says It Would Be Wrong

This is the most considerate part of the note. Rather than leaving readers to guess, Galaxy lists four things that would undo its call:

• a weekly close below the 50-week average, now $76,540, that isn't regained within a month
• spot ETF holdings falling through their July 13 low of 1.22 million BTC
• a credible, dated path to a quantum computer able to break Bitcoin's cryptography
• a US move to cut its deficit

The quantum point isn't idle: Bitcoin's quantum-exposed coins carry a real potential cost if that day comes.

The nearest tripwire is the first. At Thursday's $81,391, Bitcoin sat about 6% above $76,540. A weekly close below that line would be the first sign the old pattern isn't holding this time.

If it does hold, Galaxy sees room to run. "Bitcoin has proven its ability to run to at least $125k," the report says, "and we see no reason why it can't retake that level." That is the firm's view rather than a forecast with a date attached. For now, the weekly close is the thing to watch.