XRP ETF Inflow Streak Ends as Exchange Wallets Show No Net Inflow

US spot XRP ETFs posted net outflows of $1.84 million in the week ended Oct. 16, per SoSoValue data. That ended a run of 13 straight weekly inflows. The sum is small, but the fund balance sheet behind it is not.

The funds have taken in about $1.80 billion in cumulative net inflows, yet their net assets stood at $1.471 billion on Oct. 16. That is a gap of roughly $329 million, about 18% of the money investors put in.

ETF Buyers Are Roughly 18% Underwater

Net assets are the funds' XRP holdings valued at the current price. When they sit below cumulative inflows, the XRP the funds bought is worth less than investors paid for it.

This is the core of the demand problem. Steady ETF buying did not lift the value of what the funds hold. Net assets were already slipping while the money was still coming in, a pattern covered in our look at thirteen weeks of XRP ETF inflows. The first negative week now removes the one clear sign of demand left in the data.

Exchange Wallets Did Not Fill Up

A second reading has been used to argue that sellers are lining up: XRP in exchange wallets. Tracked exchange wallets held 20.30 billion XRP on Oct. 3 and 22.06 billion on Oct. 17, an apparent rise of 1.76 billion XRP in two weeks.

The primary data says otherwise. On XRP Insights' exchange balance tracker, the jump arrives on Oct. 5, when 20 wallets were added to tracking that day. That is a change in coverage, not XRP moving onto exchanges.

The same applies to the latest step up. As of 08:00 UTC on Oct. 24, the tracker counts 22.61 billion XRP in 701 wallets attributed to 24 exchanges. That is about 33.0% of the 68.59 billion XRP in circulation. The rise from 22.06 billion on Oct. 20 came from two newly tracked wallets.

Comparing only wallets that were tracked throughout gives the actual flow:

• Seven days to Oct. 24: down 5.2 million XRP, or 0.02%
• 30 days, excluding Uphold's internal wallet migration: down 25.4 million XRP, or 0.12%

By that measure, there has been no net inflow to exchanges. Upbit holds the most XRP of any tracked venue at 6.43 billion, or 28.4% of the tracked total. Coinbase follows with 5.84 billion and Binance with 2.76 billion.

CryptoQuant's Reserve Figure Reads Higher

A separate measure, CryptoQuant's exchange reserve figure, was reported at 11.81 billion XRP in mid-October. That puts it at the 99th percentile of the past year. CryptoQuant's own data page was not available to check, but several trackers report the same figure and percentile.

The two counts cover different sets of wallets, which is why their totals sit about 10 billion XRP apart. Either way, a high reserve does not on its own confirm selling. Holders may keep tokens on venues for trading or as collateral. A high balance is a potential supply overhang, not a guaranteed decline.

Signals That Would Change the Read

The evidence points to weak buying rather than heavy selling. ETF demand has stalled, and the same-wallet exchange data shows coins edging off venues, not onto them.

Three readings would shift that picture:

• A return to weekly net inflows in SoSoValue's ETF data, especially if net assets start closing the gap to cumulative inflows
• A sustained rise in same-wallet exchange balances on XRP Insights, the reading that would actually indicate coins moving to venues
• A further climb in CryptoQuant's reserve figure alongside rising same-wallet balances, rather than against them

A chart ceiling near $1.36 has been cited in market commentary. That level comes from a single reading and has not been confirmed by a second source, so it is not a level to lean on yet.