Eric Balchunas says Bitcoin ETFs could eventually hold three times the assets of gold ETFs. Scenario math shows what $1.85 trillion in ETF assets could mean for BTC.
BTC$77,719.00+1.66%Bitcoin ETFs could eventually become much larger than gold ETFs, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
Balchunas said Bitcoin ETFs could eventually hold three times the assets of gold ETFs. Global gold ETFs held about $615 billion at the end of August, which would put the hypothetical Bitcoin ETF figure near $1.85 trillion.
That would represent a major expansion from the current Bitcoin ETF market.
Balchunas points to demographics, institutional adoption and distribution as key reasons behind his view.
Bitcoin has a younger user base than gold, while institutional participation in U.S. Bitcoin ETFs still has room to expand. Major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity have also brought Bitcoin exposure into traditional investment platforms.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted about $54.6 billion in cumulative net inflows since launching in 2024, according to recent market data.
Balchunas has previously argued that Bitcoin ETFs could eventually triple gold ETFs, citing Bitcoin's younger investor base, growing institutional use and stronger sales infrastructure.
There is no direct formula between ETF assets and Bitcoin's price because fund assets can increase through both new inflows and BTC price appreciation.
However, simple scenario calculations show the scale of the potential move.
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs currently hold roughly 1.26 million BTC. If their holdings doubled to 2.52 million BTC while total ETF assets reached $1.85 trillion, Bitcoin would need to trade at roughly $732,000.
If ETF holdings instead tripled to 3.78 million BTC, the implied price would be around $488,000.
That creates an illustrative range of roughly $490,000 to $730,000 per BTC under those assumptions.
These figures are scenario calculations, not a price target from Balchunas. The actual outcome would depend on Bitcoin's price, ETF inflows, the number of coins held by funds and the future size of the gold ETF market.
The latest prediction comes at a time when Bitcoin ETF flows remain an important market signal.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded a $450.4 million daily outflow, their largest since June, before returning to positive flows. That shows how quickly institutional demand can change with market conditions.
If Bitcoin ETF assets eventually approach Balchunas' $1.85 trillion scenario, the market would look very different from today's structure.
For now, the $490,000 - $730,000 range should be viewed as illustrative math rather than a forecast. The key question is whether Bitcoin's ETF market can continue expanding as institutional adoption and traditional distribution grow.
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BTCYes. Here’s why: 1) btc leans younger, gold older 2) it will get used more by big money as it matures and settles down w both vol and corr 3) way more enthusiasm and sales firepower. no one is out there talking about gold ETFs but you got dozens of wholesalers (fluent in both Show more
JUST IN: Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas says Bitcoin ETFs will ultimately triple gold 👀 "I think as the younger investors get more money and grow up with Bitcoin as their store of value, I do believe that Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets."
