XRP Volatility Falls as CLARITY Act and Fed Decisions Loom

XRP has entered another period of unusually low volatility, with the token trading around $1.34 - $1.37 after its August rally faded.

The tightening of XRP’s Bollinger Bands suggests the market is entering a consolidation phase. Similar periods in previous cycles have sometimes lasted for months before a major move.

The timing is important. Two major U.S. events are now approaching: the Senate’s September 15 procedural vote on the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve’s September 15 - 16 policy meeting.

XRP Enters Another Low-Volatility Phase

XRP recently climbed toward $1.70 before losing momentum. It now trades close to $1.35, with daily price movements becoming increasingly compressed.

The current setup resembles previous accumulation periods in which XRP moved sideways for extended periods before breaking out.

The historical comparison points to two possible timelines. Shorter consolidation phases lasted roughly 79 to 89 days, while one previous extended sideways period lasted around 236 days.

If the longer pattern repeats, XRP could remain range-bound well into early 2027. However, historical patterns do not guarantee that the current cycle will follow the same path.

Related: XRP ETF Inflows Hit $1.55B as 70% Price Surge Revives Institutional Demand

CLARITY Act Becomes the Next Major Catalyst

The U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15.

The legislation seeks to establish clearer rules for digital assets and define the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC. The crypto industry has heavily lobbied lawmakers ahead of the vote.

For XRP, the vote could become an important sentiment catalyst because clearer U.S. crypto regulation could improve the outlook for institutional participation.

However, the vote itself would not immediately change XRP's legal status or guarantee a price reaction.

Fed Decision Adds More Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve will make its next policy decision on September 16, just one day after the Senate vote.

The macro backdrop has become more challenging for risk assets. U.S. producer prices rose 5.4% year over year in August, while rising oil prices have added to inflation concerns.

Markets have subsequently increased bets on a September rate hike. Reuters reported that expectations had climbed to around 85% following the latest inflation data.

A more hawkish Fed could put additional pressure on cryptocurrencies, while a less aggressive outcome could give risk assets room to recover.

Related: Bitcoin Price After August CPI: Core Inflation Raises Fed Rate Hike Risks

XRP Exchange Reserves Show a Different Signal

Despite the weak price action, XRP exchange balances have shown signs of accumulation.

According to the data cited in the original analysis, XRP reserves on Binance fell to around 2.631 billion tokens after a sharp inflow on September 9 was followed by withdrawals.

If sustained, falling exchange balances could reduce immediately available selling pressure.

That does not necessarily mean a rally is imminent. It simply suggests some holders may be moving XRP away from exchanges while waiting for the upcoming regulatory and macro catalysts.

How Long Could XRP Stay Sideways?

The current setup leaves XRP with two broad possibilities.

A shorter consolidation would resemble previous 79 - 89 day accumulation phases and could push the next major move toward late November or early December.

A longer cycle could resemble the previous 236-day sideways period, potentially keeping XRP range-bound until spring 2027.

The next few days could therefore prove important for XRP. The CLARITY Act vote and Fed decision arrive within 24 hours of each other, giving the market two major catalysts capable of breaking the current low-volatility setup.

For now, XRP remains stuck near $1.35 as traders wait for clarity from Washington and the Federal Reserve.