We had a successful September and October, where most predictions came true.
Now, let’s try to understand the historical performance of November and how crypto or Bitcoin can perform in November.
What’s Going to Happen in November 2023?
- There have been significant fluctuations in Bitcoin’s November performance over the last ten years.
- The month has seen both substantial gains, such as in 2017 (+53.48%), and significant losses, most notably in 2018 (-36.57%).
- More recently, November 2020 showed a strong positive return (+42.95%), but this was followed by two years of negative performance in 2021 and 2022.
Now, let’s see how this performance is related to Bitcoin halving. In 2013, the year after the first halving, Bitcoin performed 449%. In 2015, the year before halving, Bitcoin had a positive performance of 19%. However, in 2019, before the 2020 halving, Bitcoin had a negative performance of 17%.
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More About Crypto Predictions for November 2023
You can see there are no clear trends in November. However, the trend exists in the combined performance of August, September, and October, the Q3-2023 and transition period of Q4-2023. The formula is:
Negative August + Mild Recovery in September + Positive October
The formula matches 2015 and 2016, where Bitcoin endured a negative August followed by a mild September and a pumping October. However, considering the magnitude and relative positioning of such pumps, you can see that 2023 is more like 2015. Why?
- Similar magnitude volatility (percentage)
- Preceding year of halving
Thus, in November, we can expect a 15-19% performance from Bitcoin. This may bring Bitcoin to 39.1k to 40k. Yet, the market is overvalued right now, and we expect a local top in the second week of November. After a short correction, Bitcoin can be on its way.
Conclusion
November is likely to be positive for crypto. We will consider taking profits towards the second week of November and prepare for the local top in the range of 39.1k and 40k.
Altcoins can have completely different performance dynamics because the cooling period is in place already. We are comfortably in profit, and the correction will affect late bulls, not early ones. Still, as a caution, we will be taking profit throughout next week. Watch out for individual take-profit calls and alerts.
Disclaimer
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to the accepted levels of risk tolerance of the writer/reviewers and their risk tolerance may be different than yours. We are not responsible for any losses that you may incur as a result of any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments so please do your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.
